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Skating To Where The Puck Is Going

Portfolio Armor's Photo
by Portfolio Armor
Tuesday, Apr 14, 2026 - 9:24

Frau Im Mond

Skating To Where The Puck Is Going

As the NHL regular season comes to a close, the old line about what supposedly set Wayne Gretzky apart comes to mind: he didn’t skate to the puck, but to where the puck was going.

Macklin Celebrini, arguably the Wayne Gretzky of today.

That was always a little glib. Great players do more than anticipate geometry on ice. But the phrase still fits the market better than most of the commentary on the tape right now.

We’ve Been Trying To Do The Same

We’ve been trying to skate to where the puck was going ourselves. In February, before the Iran war started, we placed a trade specifically aimed at hedging Iran war risk.

Then in March, before the war had ended, we placed another trade aimed at the postwar reconstruction of Persian Gulf energy infrastructure.

In other words, the idea wasn’t to react after the obvious move, but to start positioning before the market fully repriced the next phase.

That doesn’t mean getting every call exactly right. It means trying to think one step ahead. And right now, one of the clearest examples of that in the market is space.

The Market Is Already Looking Past Hormuz

The Iran war still dominates headlines. The Strait of Hormuz still matters. Oil still matters. But some corners of the market are already looking past the current conflict and toward what comes next.

One of the clearest examples is space. As Reuters reported last week, SpaceX is targeting an early-June IPO roadshow for an offering that aims to raise roughly $75 billion at a valuation of up to $1.75 trillion, which would make it the biggest IPO in history, and make SpaceX one of the six most valuable U.S. companies.

That kind of event doesn’t just affect one company. It changes the temperature of an entire sector.

Space Investors Are Already Moving

Investors know that when a giant, high-attention, retail-friendly IPO approaches, sympathy trades usually start moving ahead of it. One of the space names we opened a trade on earlier this year, Intuitive Machines (LUNR) recently won a $180.4 million NASA contract tied to lunar payload delivery, and its shares are already up a third over the past month. In other words, space names were already catching bids while most of the financial media was still fixated on war maps and tanker traffic.

Space investors are looking past the Strait of Hormuz and setting their sights on the stars.

Maintaining Our Discipline

As always, we’re not just buying stories. We’re pricing the options structures first, estimating fair value, and then trying to enter at discounts to that fair value. We don’t want to miss the next rocket taking off, but we don’t want to overpay for the ride either.

If you want a heads up when we board our next moon rocket later today, you can sign up for our trading Substack/occasional email list below.

 

And if you think the market is going to crash instead, you can use our website or iPhone app to scan for the optimal hedges to hedge against that. 

Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge, and are not selected, edited or screened by Zero Hedge editors.
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